Sunday, May 10, 2009

My take on stocks

I believe we are in a bear-market rally. The dynamics of such rallies is that there is not a particular duration one can expect. They are "bubble-like" in that they end when punctured by some news or new development. So far, the market has been particularly sensitive to financial sector news so that is the likeliest source of a rally terminating development. Best guess: the rally will remain intact for at least another week.

If you want to take a new long position consider Ford, (NYSE:F), which will benefit from Chrysler's and GM's problems and might easily remain in an up trend when the bear-market rally ends. I also like Chinese ADRs such as LNVGY or GSH, (I own some LNVGY).

If you like to be short pick a home builder. I have a few DHI put options but I am bearish on the entire group.

Disclaimer: If you follow any of my advice you do so entirely at your own risk.

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