India-Pakistan nuclear arms race.

I have written before to express my dismay, here and here, over what may, with irony, be called US nuclear non-proliferation policy on the Asian sub-continent in the neocon dominated GWB years. The more recent news is that:

• India is preparing to back off its agreement to maintain a voluntary moratorium on nuclear tests and eventually formally adopt the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.
• It may be also reconsidering its official no first use nuclear weapons doctrine.
• A Congressional Research Service report, (PDF), states that Pakistan is taking steps to "undertake both quantitative and qualitative improvements to its nuclear arsenal", (although it also claims that "Whether and to what extent Pakistan’s current expansion of its nuclear weapons-related facilities is a response to the 2008 U.S.-India nuclear cooperation agreement is unclear").

Can there be any doubt that an India-Pakistan nuclear arms race is in progress, or that a real danger of nuclear war on the sub-continent is developing?

See Also: India’s nuclear fizzle by Pervez Hoodbhoy

Pakistan's and India's nukes and US nuclear proliferation policy

There are recent reports in Indian media, (here and here), that the US winked at Pakistan's development of nuclear weapons. However, despite a lack of reporting by US mainstream media, this seems to be old news. There is a Wikipedia article about it and also some details at Online Journal where it is reported that:

Richard Barlow, an intelligence analyst and a former senior member of the Counter-Proliferation unit at the CIA lost his job when he objected internally to the George H.W. Bush administration’s misleading Congress over Pakistan’s nuclear program. Following Congress-ordered investigations, the inspector-general at the State Department and the CIA concluded that Barlow had been fired as a reprisal. Further, a final investigation by Congress’ own Government Accountability Office completed in 1997 largely vindicated Barlow. The Senate Armed Services and Intelligence Committees concluded that Barlow was due Congressional relief in light of unjustified DOD actions against him and cover-ups with Congress.

To me this is of a piece with the recent nuclear deal with India effectively forgiving that country for its own covert nuclear program and its refusal to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, (NPT). What it shows is that the US has never been very serious about nuclear non-proliferation, (much less nuclear disarmament), subordinating it to other geostrategic goals of the moment. In the case of Pakistan, the motive seems to have initially been avoiding pressure to cut of military aid to that country while it was piping US aid to anti-Soviet mujaheddin in Afghanistan. Now it is to any avoid aid cut-off while Pakistan fights with Jihadists including some of the very mujaheddin previously aided. In the case of India it was to set that county up as a "balance" to growing Chinese influence in the region, (there may also have been a quid pro quo for India's acquiesence over sanctions on Iran over its alleged nuclear weapons program which quite likely doesn't exist).

To me, this seems a poor choice of priorities -- but it will not be seen that way by powers that be until a nuclear war breaks out on the sub-continent. Then everyone will want to know how it was allowed to happen.

As sleazy as 123

Indian election results to help activate Indo-US nuke deal

New York, May 16 (PTI) Indian-Americans for Democrats today described as "fantastic" the results of general elections in India, saying it will help in full "activation" of the nuclear deal with the US and further strengthen bilateral ties. ...

That's too bad really. The nuclear deal, the "123 agreement.", railroaded through with maximum avoidance of debate and deliberation by the Bush Administration is an evisceration of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). That Administration pretty much gave away the store in negotiating the deal. India agreed to not spread nuclear weapons technology to other states which it wasn't about to do anyhow. In return it gets to import dual use nuclear technology and nuclear fuel for its civilian power reactors which frees up supplies for its not subject to inspections military reactors. These reactors provide fissile material for expanding India's nuclear weapons arsenal in an arms race with Pakistan. The nuclear sanctions on India were on the verge of working. The Indian economy is in desperate need of more civilian nuclear power. Without the 123 deal India would have had to starve its nuclear weapons program to meet that need. With India's forced restraint pressure could have been brought to bear on Pakistan to reduce its own stockpiles and for both countries to disarm and join the NPT as non-nuclear weapons states

The neocon dominated Bush Administration was allergic to most international law. (excluding certain international laws that are advantageous to US corporations such as the WIPO Copyright Treaty snd the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights). Whether it is the UN Charter, the Geneva Conventions, or the NPT, however, non-commercial international law is generally seen as a nuisance interfering with the right of the world's one remaining superpower to shape the world according to its own design. For the Bushies, undermining the NPT with the 123 Agreement was more of a plus than a minus.

The main foreign policy reason for the 123 agreement from the Bush Administration side lies in setting India up as a more powerful competitor to China for regional influence. It's all geostrategic gamesmanship. Why is it so important to counter the "threat" of rising Chinese influence? To some extent it must be residual cold war hostility to a formally communist state even though China seems focused on trade and economic growth and to have abandoned any idea it may have had of exporting revolution. That was more of a Soviet thing to begin with anyhow. Beyond that it is just on general principle, apparently. The countries of the region might be less subject to US diplomacy if they aren't divided and vulnerable to being played off against one another. India is being lured into being a US stooge, but is in denial about it and doesn't care.

It will be interesting to see how Obama plays the India-China hand passed to it by the Bush Administration.